In Kim Stanley Robinson's book "The Ministry of the Future", it just becomes too dangerous to be an oligarch. Private jets get shot down by tiny drones, at random, just often enough to make it not worth using the jets. That book is about the climate crisis. We are too busy shitting ourselves right now to think directly about the climate crisis, but we need to
I know that Luigi has become symbolic of something- a feeling, a movement, a single act of resistance, which, however briefly, pierced the blubber of our bloated overlords. But please remember that Luigi Mangione has pleaded not guilty and is innocent until proven guilty. I don’t want us to all assume his conviction is inevitable because we have come to equate the action with the person who has been charged with it.
A lot of people are scared because it sent a wake up call to the govt and the people. I understand the narrative needs to go a certain way for help ensure no conviction, but at the same time this is too big to control. Perhaps we should create a campaign that instills the idea of innocence rather than individually telling people to stop talking??
1) Luigi did some of his plan quite well. But other parts didn't work out and he was caught. He didn't hide his identity well enough before and after the attack and he had incriminating evidence on him. A copycat would do well to learn those lessons and improve on his attack. Some of them will be clumsy, but some will learn from him and do even better next time. And one hardly needs to use a gun - lots of other ways of taking out oligarchs.
2) I feel we're on the precipice of something major happening economically. There's several historically reliable indicators pointing towards a stock market crash soon and a housing crash soon (by some indicators, the housing crash is already underway, but housing moves very slowly so it isn't fully evident yet). The stock market is ripe for a major crash - you see many valuations that simply make no sense. This could very well put us in a position that looks very much like 1929. In fact many of Trump's policies are very reminiscent of those of Herbert Hoover. Lookup Herbert Hoover's presidency - the parallels to today are striking.
A plausible scenario looks like we see rallies in the stock market and crypto this spring, a slowdown into summer (summers are often slow for markets), then a crash in fall (September and October are popular months for crashes). That would certainly fit well with historical market cycle patterns for Bitcoin (which tends to drive the whole crypto market). Trump, being the narcissist he is, will try to deflect and shift blame, but, since he doesn't accept reality and only wants yes men around him, will be utterly unable to deal with the crash, much like Hoover wasn't and Trump wasn't with COVID. Employment being much higher than any of us have experienced will do much to strengthen our cause because not only will people be angry and desperate, but, being untethered from a job, have an opportunity to do do things they wouldn't otherwise be able to do.
3) I saw a YouTube video from Daily Stoic called "Why Narcissistic Leaders Always Fail (In The End)" and he was explaining how Nero's narcissism lead him down a similar path to what we see from Trump. Really fascinating and gives some hope that alot of this has a good chance of imploding wildly, simply because of how this personality type works. Doesn't hurt to push it along though.
But I think there's hope. It might not be a fun few years, but I actually think a major economic event could be the best thing to happen to us (in the long run). It certainly was last time Nazis were on the march in the US - we were able to reject Herbert Hoover (who very well might have joined WWII on the Nazi side) and get FDR and alot of far better policies for the American people. It also marked the end of the Gilded Age, something I think very well describes the situation today.
A note of caution about the general strike idea, though. I’m writing this from the UK, a country which used to practise general strikes in the early to mid 20th century.
It is now illegal to carry out or organise a general strike, and has been the entire time I’ve been alive.
If a general strike becomes a serious threat, the US government will likely make it illegal to organise a general strike.
I think we need to be prepared for that possibility. This isn’t to encourage doomerism or so that people despair, but so that we can properly consider and assess strategies.
I think we need to get pragmatic and realistic about what is likely to happen. All the powers of the state will be weaponised against its citizens. Will that single mom who needs insulin be willing to risk jail time to participate in a general strike? Will the social democrats who are good honest people be willing to be kettled, sprayed with water canon, lose their jobs and their comfortable homes and their identities as law abiding citizens?
I don’t have answers, or solutions. But I think the way we arrive at effective strategy is to start thinking coldly and dispassionately about how the power of the state is now going to be weaponised against people who never thought it would come for them.
I appreciate that these people are earnest and seeking a solution. But calling this a strike, nonetheless a general strike, is laughable. You need whole industries to be gummed up, not office workers, waiters, and baristas spread out across the country taking some days off and being easily covered.
I like the idea of a rolling strike. There was a South American country that used that tactic sometime in the last ten years, I wish I remember where. But they organized a strike that they kept going in a way that they mitigated the loss of resources and distributed the burden by having sections of activists strike at a time. So it was disruptive, but not everyone was striking at one time.
I couldn't remember where it happened, so I did a Google search and found info that indicated that it is a tactic that is used regularly. The specific case I was thinking of was in Ecuador in 2019. But I saw other search results for other places in South America that used it. And apparently it's used often by Labor Unions.
Oh Robert Evan’s you’ve sobered my waning thoughts and almost poisoned heart… I’m from the UK but I’ve been anxious about what’s going on across the pond because I have skin this game; my cousins, aunt and uncle in Virginia. This little piece has soothed me in a way, so I thank you for inadvertently doing that for me and so many others who find themselves doomscrolling while simultaneously mashing the panic button in our psyche’s.
I loved the quick 1,2, SLAP ‘Pull yourself together’ paragraph about the half-baked socially-inept billionaires massaging Trumps ego— they are not battle-hardened trench fighters, they are more akin to the likes of Bonny Prince Charlie; these who will flee their own version of Culloden Moor and escape the mainland as soon as things go tits up. They will attempt to change their allegiances to the prevailing side and disavow their current beliefs in a futile attempt to collect some crumbs of influence. Sadly, I predict; like the Bonnie Prince they end up dying lonely old men staring lovingly at a number on a piece of paper, while on the other side of the castle walls there will be a society that will never love them as much as they think it loves them.
Yep, I've been saying for a long time that blue states need to somehow withhold their taxes but I don't know how we'd do it logistically. Could there be a kind of escrow account, for lack of a better word? That said, the IRS is going to be on the chopping block, so it might be easier to pull something off.
Whenever any of this gets overwhelming I listen to this. Everything ends. And all I can do is try to help with the fallout by actively participating in mutual aid, forging relationships, and reviewing the emergency medical training I received an age ago. It’s bad, it’s going to get worse, but so many of us will still be here to help.
My organization has been training anyone who wants how to use a firearm for years. We aren't panicking at what to do now. We are just going to do what we have always done.
We've seen a huge uptick in numbers and interest too. Gee I wonder why.
As fair as I can tell, humanity is a biome. Periodically, the malicious strain of humanity grows beyond its boundaries and has to be put in check by a strain with better intent. Then, equilibrium returns. For a time.
Well, you wrote what I wrote today...way better. And more to the point🤣. Although you focus on specifically our party politics while I think the rot is deeper and older than we are as a nation. We are in a new moment and we have been for a while and we keep trying to use broken tools to hold up actively falling walls.
The best I have is we need to decide to be the leaders we want to see and attempt impossible things, even if it's in a nowhere town. With enough people and enough attempts running simultaneously, we'll hit on something.
Man, I so appreciate you writing this. I’ve been engaged in organizing and have been feeling a little hopeless because I haven’t felt like the work we’ve been doing is impactful enough for years now. I’ve been unable to articulate my feelings in a way that isn’t insulting to a bunch of amazing, well meaning people and I think you handled that perfectly in this piece. I plan to share this in our forums to start a much needed discussion. Thank you.
In Kim Stanley Robinson's book "The Ministry of the Future", it just becomes too dangerous to be an oligarch. Private jets get shot down by tiny drones, at random, just often enough to make it not worth using the jets. That book is about the climate crisis. We are too busy shitting ourselves right now to think directly about the climate crisis, but we need to
I know that Luigi has become symbolic of something- a feeling, a movement, a single act of resistance, which, however briefly, pierced the blubber of our bloated overlords. But please remember that Luigi Mangione has pleaded not guilty and is innocent until proven guilty. I don’t want us to all assume his conviction is inevitable because we have come to equate the action with the person who has been charged with it.
A lot of people are scared because it sent a wake up call to the govt and the people. I understand the narrative needs to go a certain way for help ensure no conviction, but at the same time this is too big to control. Perhaps we should create a campaign that instills the idea of innocence rather than individually telling people to stop talking??
All I can think of is Yeats
The Second Coming -
Turning and turning in the widening gyre
The falcon cannot hear the falconer;
Things fall apart; the centre cannot hold;
Mere anarchy is loosed upon the world,
The blood-dimmed tide is loosed, and everywhere
The ceremony of innocence is drowned;
The best lack all conviction, while the worst
Are full of passionate intensity.
Surely some revelation is at hand;
Surely the Second Coming is at hand.
The Second Coming! Hardly are those words out
When a vast image out of Spiritus Mundi
Troubles my sight: somewhere in sands of the desert
A shape with lion body and the head of a man,
A gaze blank and pitiless as the sun,
Is moving its slow thighs, while all about it
Reel shadows of the indignant desert birds.
The darkness drops again; but now I know
That twenty centuries of stony sleep
Were vexed to nightmare by a rocking cradle,
And what rough beast, its hour come round at last,
Slouches towards Bethlehem to be born?
-William Butler Yeats
May God protect us all.
Lovely to see this poem again - it’s apt.
Don’t forget, though, that Yeats lived long enough to see a liberated and independent Ireland. Perhaps there’s some comfort in that.
A few things:
1) Luigi did some of his plan quite well. But other parts didn't work out and he was caught. He didn't hide his identity well enough before and after the attack and he had incriminating evidence on him. A copycat would do well to learn those lessons and improve on his attack. Some of them will be clumsy, but some will learn from him and do even better next time. And one hardly needs to use a gun - lots of other ways of taking out oligarchs.
2) I feel we're on the precipice of something major happening economically. There's several historically reliable indicators pointing towards a stock market crash soon and a housing crash soon (by some indicators, the housing crash is already underway, but housing moves very slowly so it isn't fully evident yet). The stock market is ripe for a major crash - you see many valuations that simply make no sense. This could very well put us in a position that looks very much like 1929. In fact many of Trump's policies are very reminiscent of those of Herbert Hoover. Lookup Herbert Hoover's presidency - the parallels to today are striking.
A plausible scenario looks like we see rallies in the stock market and crypto this spring, a slowdown into summer (summers are often slow for markets), then a crash in fall (September and October are popular months for crashes). That would certainly fit well with historical market cycle patterns for Bitcoin (which tends to drive the whole crypto market). Trump, being the narcissist he is, will try to deflect and shift blame, but, since he doesn't accept reality and only wants yes men around him, will be utterly unable to deal with the crash, much like Hoover wasn't and Trump wasn't with COVID. Employment being much higher than any of us have experienced will do much to strengthen our cause because not only will people be angry and desperate, but, being untethered from a job, have an opportunity to do do things they wouldn't otherwise be able to do.
3) I saw a YouTube video from Daily Stoic called "Why Narcissistic Leaders Always Fail (In The End)" and he was explaining how Nero's narcissism lead him down a similar path to what we see from Trump. Really fascinating and gives some hope that alot of this has a good chance of imploding wildly, simply because of how this personality type works. Doesn't hurt to push it along though.
But I think there's hope. It might not be a fun few years, but I actually think a major economic event could be the best thing to happen to us (in the long run). It certainly was last time Nazis were on the march in the US - we were able to reject Herbert Hoover (who very well might have joined WWII on the Nazi side) and get FDR and alot of far better policies for the American people. It also marked the end of the Gilded Age, something I think very well describes the situation today.
A good and useful piece of writing.
A note of caution about the general strike idea, though. I’m writing this from the UK, a country which used to practise general strikes in the early to mid 20th century.
It is now illegal to carry out or organise a general strike, and has been the entire time I’ve been alive.
If a general strike becomes a serious threat, the US government will likely make it illegal to organise a general strike.
I think we need to be prepared for that possibility. This isn’t to encourage doomerism or so that people despair, but so that we can properly consider and assess strategies.
I think we need to get pragmatic and realistic about what is likely to happen. All the powers of the state will be weaponised against its citizens. Will that single mom who needs insulin be willing to risk jail time to participate in a general strike? Will the social democrats who are good honest people be willing to be kettled, sprayed with water canon, lose their jobs and their comfortable homes and their identities as law abiding citizens?
I don’t have answers, or solutions. But I think the way we arrive at effective strategy is to start thinking coldly and dispassionately about how the power of the state is now going to be weaponised against people who never thought it would come for them.
There are folks organizing for a general strike, and planning on doing it sooner than 2028. Here's their Threads link: https://www.threads.net/@thegeneralstrikeus
I appreciate that these people are earnest and seeking a solution. But calling this a strike, nonetheless a general strike, is laughable. You need whole industries to be gummed up, not office workers, waiters, and baristas spread out across the country taking some days off and being easily covered.
I like the idea of a rolling strike. There was a South American country that used that tactic sometime in the last ten years, I wish I remember where. But they organized a strike that they kept going in a way that they mitigated the loss of resources and distributed the burden by having sections of activists strike at a time. So it was disruptive, but not everyone was striking at one time.
A rather important thing is missing from your comment: what did they end up getting from the powers that be with this mitigated loss of resoures?
I couldn't remember where it happened, so I did a Google search and found info that indicated that it is a tactic that is used regularly. The specific case I was thinking of was in Ecuador in 2019. But I saw other search results for other places in South America that used it. And apparently it's used often by Labor Unions.
Here's a good place to start: https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/oct/09/ecuador-strike-lenin-moreno-latest
But just search 'rolling strikes' and you should find some useful info.
Oh Robert Evan’s you’ve sobered my waning thoughts and almost poisoned heart… I’m from the UK but I’ve been anxious about what’s going on across the pond because I have skin this game; my cousins, aunt and uncle in Virginia. This little piece has soothed me in a way, so I thank you for inadvertently doing that for me and so many others who find themselves doomscrolling while simultaneously mashing the panic button in our psyche’s.
I loved the quick 1,2, SLAP ‘Pull yourself together’ paragraph about the half-baked socially-inept billionaires massaging Trumps ego— they are not battle-hardened trench fighters, they are more akin to the likes of Bonny Prince Charlie; these who will flee their own version of Culloden Moor and escape the mainland as soon as things go tits up. They will attempt to change their allegiances to the prevailing side and disavow their current beliefs in a futile attempt to collect some crumbs of influence. Sadly, I predict; like the Bonnie Prince they end up dying lonely old men staring lovingly at a number on a piece of paper, while on the other side of the castle walls there will be a society that will never love them as much as they think it loves them.
Have we ever tried a tax strike? In the US or elsewhere?
I would like to know as well. I feel financial methods are powerful (boycotts and no buying) and not used enough.
Yep, I've been saying for a long time that blue states need to somehow withhold their taxes but I don't know how we'd do it logistically. Could there be a kind of escrow account, for lack of a better word? That said, the IRS is going to be on the chopping block, so it might be easier to pull something off.
https://youtu.be/AIZNgx8NKAw
Whenever any of this gets overwhelming I listen to this. Everything ends. And all I can do is try to help with the fallout by actively participating in mutual aid, forging relationships, and reviewing the emergency medical training I received an age ago. It’s bad, it’s going to get worse, but so many of us will still be here to help.
on target, yes. But dude take a cozy little vacation maybe and don't let anyone tell you that you don't need it. lol
My organization has been training anyone who wants how to use a firearm for years. We aren't panicking at what to do now. We are just going to do what we have always done.
We've seen a huge uptick in numbers and interest too. Gee I wonder why.
Stay rad, Robert.
As fair as I can tell, humanity is a biome. Periodically, the malicious strain of humanity grows beyond its boundaries and has to be put in check by a strain with better intent. Then, equilibrium returns. For a time.
Good analysis and it gives me some hope because humans are, if anything, extremely creative beings.
Well, you wrote what I wrote today...way better. And more to the point🤣. Although you focus on specifically our party politics while I think the rot is deeper and older than we are as a nation. We are in a new moment and we have been for a while and we keep trying to use broken tools to hold up actively falling walls.
The best I have is we need to decide to be the leaders we want to see and attempt impossible things, even if it's in a nowhere town. With enough people and enough attempts running simultaneously, we'll hit on something.
Man, I so appreciate you writing this. I’ve been engaged in organizing and have been feeling a little hopeless because I haven’t felt like the work we’ve been doing is impactful enough for years now. I’ve been unable to articulate my feelings in a way that isn’t insulting to a bunch of amazing, well meaning people and I think you handled that perfectly in this piece. I plan to share this in our forums to start a much needed discussion. Thank you.
I really appreciate your perspective on this Robert